One of the primary objectives of financial planning is to ensure that individuals have more than ample spendable cash flow during all of their retirement years. Navigating the careful balance between spending too much and possibly running out of funds, or spending too little and missing out on all of the potential joys of retirement is no simple task. This is especially true when considering that retirement planning involves a unique set of uncertain future variables, including a retiree’s future tax rate, risk tolerance, rate of investment return, inflation, unexpected outflows and sequence of returns.
A key determinate of retirement success is the impact of sequence-of-return risk, which can be defined as the threat that a retirement portfolio will experience lower or negative investment returns in the early years of one’s retirement, when he or she is also withdrawing funds from that portfolio of investments.
To illustrate this concept, consider a game, in which you are dealt six cards, ace through six. During each of your turns, you must lay down one card without looking at any of those in our hand. If you play an even card, the dealer will give you an addition card. Play an odd card, and the dealer will take a card from you. Depending on the cards you play, you may be out of cards by your third turn, or you may be left with a larger hand to allow you to continue playing for quite some time. As the graph below further demonstrates, when there is a change in the order or sequence of events, investors may receive the same average investment returns, but each retiree will experience drastically different outcomes.
Initial Investment: $500,000
Distribution: $35,000 per year / growing at 3% inflation
Portfolio #1: Annual Compounded Returns of S&P 500 1994-1969 (reverse order)
Portfolio #2: Annual Compounded Returns on S&P 500 1969-1994
This is a hypothetical illustration and is not intended to reflect the actual performance of any particular security. Actual investor results will vary.
As is often the case, an investor’s risk tolerance tends to decline at or during retirement. However, risk may mean different things, both emotionally and financially, to different people. For some, risk may translate to losing money or experiencing market fluctuations. For others, risk may mean having inflation eat away at their purchasing power or it may mean outliving their money or even spending too little during retirement. The important thing to think about is that when an investor reduces one risk (i.e. market risk), he or she is likely to increase another (i.e. inflation risk). A review of these factors can help investors frame what is important to them and may be used as a guide to help them develop an appropriate investment allocation that meets their risk tolerance.
In general, a person planning for a 10-year retirement can potentially spend a lot more as a percent of their portfolio than someone planning for a 30-year retirement. However, how much an individual can spend in retirement will depend on many factors, including their own longevity, tax rates, health care costs, desires to make gifts and bequests, and much more.
Countless studies suggest that a 3 to 4 percent annual withdrawal rate from investment assets can provide the average retiree with a reasonably high chance of successfully maintaining assets throughout a 25-year retirement. Today, however, people are enjoying retirement longer than 25 years, and equity markets are currently in their eighth year of a recovery with interest rates still at historic lows. Consequently, the 4 percent rule may not be as relevant today as it once was.
In the current economic environment, investors should consider the following points in an effort to achieve retirement success. Each will likely add incrementally towards increasing the chance that investors may achieve their ultimate retirement savings and spending goals.
Retirement planning is a dynamic process that requires both financial and emotional evaluation and decision making. A successful retirement is never a singular event, but rather a series of decisions made over the course of your lifetime; decisions for which the team at Provenance Wealth Advisors is well-equipped to assist you and your family.
 Bergen, William P. 1994 “Determining withdrawal rates using historical data”, Journal of Financial Planning
About the author: Todd A. Moll, CFP®, CFA, is a director and chief investment officer with Provenance Wealth Advisor, an Independent Registered Investment Advisor affiliated with Berkowitz Pollack Brant Advisors and Accountants, and a registered representative with Raymond James Financial Services. For more information, call (954) 712-8888 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
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Todd A. Moll is a registered representative of and offers securities through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Members FINRA/SIPC.
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PWAThe information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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